Bitcoin's Critical $104K Level: Why This Price Point Could Define the Next Bull Market Phase

 

Introduction: Understanding Bitcoin's Current Market Position

Bitcoin remains at the center of attention for investors and traders in the cryptocurrency world. The market is currently at a crossroads, leaving many to wonder whether the bull run still has strength or if a bearish reversal is on the horizon. According to fresh insights from Glassnode, a leading cryptocurrency research firm, one key level could shape Bitcoin’s future path: Bitcoin's Critical $104K Level.

This analysis highlights why reaching this price point is essential for repeating past bull market correction patterns, and what it could mean for traders, long-term investors, and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem in the U.S. and worldwide.

The Science Behind Bitcoin's Critical $104K Level

Market Quantiles and Supply Distribution

Bitcoin’s movements are not entirely random—they often follow recognizable patterns tied to how supply is distributed at different price levels. Glassnode’s research introduces the idea of “profit quantiles,” which classify Bitcoin’s circulating supply based on the last time those coins were moved.

The 0.95 quantile reflects the point where 95% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit. Right now, Bitcoin is trading between the 0.85 and 0.95 quantiles, within the $104,100 to $114,300 range. Historically, this price band has acted as a consolidation zone after major peaks.

Historical Context: Why $104K Matters

Looking back at Bitcoin’s history, the current phase strongly resembles earlier bull market corrections. Previous cycles have shown:

• Euphoric rallies to new all-time highs
• Corrections of 10–15% from peak values
• Prolonged consolidation within a set price corridor
• Breakouts that ultimately defined the next big trend

If Bitcoin drops below Bitcoin's Critical $104K Level, Glassnode warns this could lead to what they call “post-ATH exhaustion phases,” echoing earlier cycles. On the other hand, a solid move above $114,300 may signal renewed demand and fuel the continuation of the bull run.

Current Market Dynamics: Post-Euphoria Consolidation

Bitcoin’s Third Euphoric Wave

The recent surge to new highs in August marked Bitcoin’s third major euphoric rally in this bull market cycle. Each wave has followed a familiar pattern:

·         Rapid price growth far beyond sustainable levels

·         Strong participation from both retail and institutional investors

·         Widespread media coverage and discussions of mainstream adoption

·         A necessary cooling-off period as the market absorbs gains

These patterns show that such euphoric rallies in cryptocurrency markets can’t last forever. This is why Bitcoin is now in a consolidation phase instead of continuing its nonstop climb.

The Role of Short-Term Holders (STHs)

Short-term holders—those who keep Bitcoin for up to six months—have a major influence on price movement during these sensitive stages. They often act as:

·         Stabilizers during modest corrections

·         Momentum drivers when trends are strong

·         Sources of volatility when profitability shifts quickly

Recent numbers highlight how quickly sentiment can change. When Bitcoin dipped to $108,000, short-term holder supply in profit dropped from over 90% to just 42%. This sharp swing illustrates how fragile confidence can be, and why maintaining Bitcoin's Critical $104K Level will be essential for stability in the broader cryptocurrency market.

Market Psychology and Investor Behavior

The Profit-Loss Cycle Effect

Short-term holders (STHs) often move through a clear cycle of emotions as the market shifts between gains and losses:

Phase 1: Euphoric Profit-Taking

• STHs enjoy substantial gains when Bitcoin rallies.
• Confidence grows as profits pile up.
• The overall mood stays bullish, even though risks increase.

Phase 2: Reality Check

• Sudden price drops wipe out paper profits quickly.
• Panic selling begins as losses build.
• Sentiment flips from greed to fear.

Phase 3: Exhaustion and Stabilization

• Weaker investors exit the market through capitulation.
• Stronger hands step in and buy at discounted prices.
• This creates the base for Bitcoin’s next big move.

Why Bitcoin's Critical $104K Level Matters

The $104K mark is more than just another chart point—it acts as a strong psychological barrier for several reasons:

1. Round Number Power: Traders often react strongly to big round numbers.
2. Historical Patterns: Past consolidation periods have respected similar levels.
3. Institutional Strategies: Big investors tend to set entry and exit points around such zones.
4. Risk Management: Professional traders use these levels to plan stop-losses and manage positions.

Comparative Analysis: Gold vs. Bitcoin Performance

While Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, traditional risk assets like gold have continued their upward trajectory. This divergence raises important questions about Bitcoin's correlation with other asset classes and its role as a store of value.

Key Differences in Current Performance:

Gold's Advantages:

• Continued institutional demand amid economic uncertainty

·         Central bank purchases supporting price floors

·         Traditional safe-haven status during market volatility

Bitcoin's Challenges:

·         Increased regulatory scrutiny in various jurisdictions

·         Competition from other cryptocurrencies

·         Technology and scalability concerns

Bitcoin's Unique Position:

·         Digital scarcity in an increasingly digital world

·         Growing institutional adoption and infrastructure development

·         Potential for exponential rather than linear growth patterns

 

Future Scenarios and Probability Assessment

Break Over $114.3K in a Bullish Scenario

Assuming Bitcoin manages to break through the upper quantile resistance:

Immediate Repercussions:

·         Restored enthusiasm among retailers and institutions.

·         Bears' short-covering increases momentum

·         The media focuses on upbeat stories again.

Longer-Term Projections:

·         Possible test of prior all-time highs

·         Higher likelihood of finding new prices

·         Reinforced the idea that the bull market is getting stronger.

 Bearish Scenario: Break Below $104.1K

A breakdown below the critical support level would suggest:

Short-Term Consequences:

·         Acceleration of selling pressure

·         Stop-loss triggering creates additional downward pressure

·         Market sentiment shifts decidedly bearish

Extended Timeline Implications:

·         Potential retest of lower support levels

·         Extended consolidation or correction period

·         Reassessment of bull market timeline

 Preparing for Bitcoin's Next Major Move

The fact that Bitcoin is at the key point of $104,000 is not simply a mark on the history of the cryptocurrency anymore, but a turning point that would probably shape the future of the cryptocurrency in the next few months and possibly years. The knowledge of the technical, psychological, and underlying factors being played would give the investor a background in which they can make sound decisions.

The historical patterns, technical signals, and market psychology all converging at this price level is a rare occurrence and the next trading move of Bitcoin can have disproportionately large effects on the overall cryptocurrency market.

Whether Bitcoin successfully defends this level and continues its bull market trajectory or breaks down into a more extended correction phase will likely depend on a combination of factors including institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and broader macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin Power Players: Who Really Owns the Most in 2025

 

Bitcoin, the world's most decentralized digital currency, is often referred to as such, but its ownership is quite concentrated. The majority of the supply is controlled by a small group of individuals, corporations, financial institutions, and even governments. Understanding who holds the most Bitcoin isn’t just a fact—it offers a window into the forces that will shape Bitcoin’s role in global finance over the next decade.

1. The Mythical Giant: Satoshi Nakamoto

In any ranking of cryptocurrency, the elusive and mysterious inventor of Bitcoin must be listed among its biggest users. Satoshi Nakamoto is believed to own close to 1 million BTC, mined during Bitcoin’s earliest days. The fact that these coins have never been moved, which gives them a sense of mystery and stability, is exciting. If Satoshi’s stash ever entered circulation, the chances of the entire market being thrown off are still small.

2. Corporate Titans: Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet

One of the most significant developments in the last five years has been the rise of corporate Bitcoin reserves. What started as a fringe strategy has become mainstream financial policy.

·         MicroStrategy is the undisputed leader, holding more than 629,000 BTC, a position that cements it as both a software company and a de facto Bitcoin holding firm.

·         Tesla, Block (Square), and Coinbase have also joined the ranks, using Bitcoin as a store of value and, in some cases, as part of operational strategies.

·         Public miners like Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms accumulate Bitcoin through mining operations, further boosting corporate reserves.

Why This Matters for the Future

Corporate adoption is more than a numbers game; it's a vote of confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term Reserve Asset. For these companies, bitcoin serves much the same function as gold did at one point— a hedge against inflation, a bet on digital scarcity and a gimmick to attract investors. As more companies put Bitcoin into the balance sheet, it is being established for more institutionalnormalization.

3. Institutional and ETF Ownership: Wall Street’s New Playground

Between 2023 and 2025, there will be a focus on institutional domination, while retail will experience the same level of excitement from 2020 to 2022. Bitcoin ETFs, especially those that have been approved in the United States and Europe, currently hold over 1.2 million BTC, which is more than even Satoshi Nakamoto does as a group.

Why This Is Transformative

ETFs make Bitcoin accessible to pension funds, individual retirement products, and conservative investors who prefer regulated products over private wallets. Two effects of this influx of institutional money are:

1. Stability & Liquidity – With large, regulated players in the market, volatility may gradually decrease.
2. Wall Street Influence – Bitcoin’s pricing, once dominated by retail traders, is increasingly tied to institutional demand and global macroeconomic policy.

4. Government Bitcoin Reserves: Digital Sovereign Wealth

Governments are no longer in the sidelines. By 2025, Bitcoin assets have been accumulated by various nations, either through mining operations or the seizure or acquisition of properties.

·         United States: ~198,000 BTC (seized assets + strategic reserves)

·         China: 194,000 BTC (largely from confiscations)

·         United Kingdom: 61,000 BTC

·         Ukraine: 46,000 BTC

·         Bhutan: 13,000 BTC (via secret mining operations)

·         El Salvador: 6,000 BTC (world’s first official Bitcoin legal tender experiment)

Why Governments Care

Bitcoin has a variety of uses for governments, including:

·         Strategic Reserves: It serves as a hedge against dollar dependency, much like gold.

·         Geopolitical Tool: Bitcoin is being investigated for trade resilience by nations under sanctions, such as Russia or Iran.

·         Innovation Strategy: Bitcoin adoption is utilized by small countries like Bhutan and El Salvador to draw in tourists, foreign direct investment, and international notice.

5. The Bigger Picture: What This Means for Bitcoin’s Future

5.1 The Rise of “Digital Gold 2.0”

The evolution of bitcoin from individual enthusiasts to business treasuries and government vaults is underway: it is becoming the digital equivalent of gold. Bitcoin is considered better than gold, since its supply is limited to 21 million.

5.2 The Risk of Centralization

It's hard to ignore the irony. The financial power of a currency designed to be decentralized is now more and more concentrated among governments, businesses, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Could a few businesses dominate Bitcoin's future if they controlled the majority of the supply? It may depend on how well grassroots adoption keeps up with institutional accumulation.

5.3 Bitcoin as a Global Monetary Hedge

Businesses and governments can use bitcoin as a means of protection against fiat instability during times of debt mounting and inflation occurring in the economy. It is already serving as a strategic macroeconomic asset, and this trend is likely to worsen if the value of world currencies continues to decline.

6. Summary Table of Major Bitcoin Holders (2025)

Holder Type	Estimated BTC Holdings	Why It Matters
Satoshi Nakamoto	1 million BTC	Silent yet dominant—coins remain untouched
ETFs & Institutional Funds	1.2+ million BTC	Bring mainstream legitimacy and capital inflows
Corporate Treasuries	847,000 BTC (MicroStrategy 629k+)	Redefining balance sheet strategy
Governments	518,000 BTC (U.S., China, U.K., El Salvador, etc.)	Using Bitcoin for reserves, trade, and geopolitics.

 

Conclusion: A New Era of Bitcoin Power

The landscape of Bitcoin ownership in 2025 shows one hard truth, the truth that it is no longer a fresh experiment in retail. It has grown up to be a multi-trillion-dollar asset class influenced by corporations, institutional giants as well as the governments.

Two forces are going to distinguish the future of Bitcoin as it becomes deep-rooted in world of finance:

• Centralization by big players—which could reduce volatility but risk undermining its decentralized ethos.
• Grassroots adoption by individuals worldwide—which keeps Bitcoin aligned with its original vision of financial freedom.

The balance between these forces will determine whether Bitcoin becomes the backbone of a new financial system or just another tool of powerful institutions.

Crypto Startups Set to Score $25B in VC Funding by 2025

 

Introduction: The Bull Run Behind Blockchain Investment

Could 2025 be the breakout year for crypto startups? If predictions hold true, venture capitalists will pour a record-breaking $25 billion into blockchain and crypto ventures, signaling renewed confidence in the digital asset ecosystem.

Michael Martin, director at Ava Labs’ Codebase incubator, calls this a “perfect storm” of bullish conditions. There are several reasons for the favorable climate for significant investment, such as legislative clarity and Stripe's crypto acquisition.

Why the Money Is Flowing into Crypto

A Series of Confidence-Boosting Events

Several high-profile developments are encouraging venture capital firms to double down on crypto startups:

• Circle’s successful public listing has demonstrated that crypto companies can go normal.
• As per privy's observation, blockchain is being integrated with regular services by fintech giants.
• Wall Street’s deepening involvement in blockchain projects signals trust from traditional finance.

·         Recently risk money starts to take notice of the booming crypto market again.

Martin explained that these “proof points” are now giving investors the confidence to support early-stage blockchain companies they previously might have overlooked.

The $13.2 Billion Already Raised in 2025

Just midway through the year, crypto firms have raised $13.2 billion, according to DeFiLlama. That’s already 40% more than the total investment in all of 2024 — and the upward trend shows no sign of slowing.

PitchBook initially projected $18 billion in funding for 2025. But as the current numbers suggest, the industry may far exceed those estimates, likely landing closer to the $25 billion mark forecasted by both Martin and Galaxy Ventures’ Mike Giampapa.

The Political Winds Are Shifting in Crypto’s Favor

Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance Is Fueling Investor Confidence

Trump's presidency has provided the crypto industry with an unexpected support:

• The Genius Act, passed in July, gave blockchain startups a regulatory green light.
• More crypto-friendly legislation is under review in Congress.
• The government’s tone has emboldened financial institutions and traditional banks to engage with blockchain projects.

As a result, companies like Stripe have led the way in mergers and acquisitions that incorporate crypto technologies into their platforms. And this trend, Martin believes, is only just beginning.

Caution Flags: Could the Boom Bust?

While 2025 looks bright, macroeconomic threats could still throw a wrench in the gears:

• Trump’s tariffs and trade wars could affect global market confidence.
• Publicly traded crypto firms like Circle and Coinbase must meet expectations — or risk souring investor sentiment.
• A downturn in Bitcoin’s or Ethereum’s performance could also cool the momentum.

Martin warns that if key players underperform, it could cause VCs to tighten their checkbooks, slowing the pace of investment.

Conclusion: Crypto’s Turning Point Is Now

Crypto and blockchain ventures are enjoying a pivotal moment — one that could redefine the next generation of digital finance. The expected $25 billion VC windfall is not just a number; it reflects the industry’s growing legitimacy, institutional backing, and global integration.

While economic risks remain, the stage is set for crypto startups to lead the charge into a new financial frontier.

Call to Action

Are you building a blockchain startup? Now may be the time to secure your share of the upcoming $25 billion wave. Keep your pitch decks ready and your innovations investor-proof — because 2025 is shaping up to be crypto’s biggest year yet.

Bitcoin’s Latest Move: Are Long-Term Holders Hinting at a Pause in the Rally?

 

Recent trends indicate that long-term Bitcoin holders are taking profits, whereas short-term investors are coming in. What does this mean for the future of Bitcoin? So, let’s get out of jargon land.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Cashing Out

Bitcoin holders who own coins and have been holding them more than five months are now selling their Bitcoin, over the past few weeks. This category of traders who ordinarily hold their positions during market slides and rallies are currently transferring bulk numbers of BTC to exchanges. This action has occurred frequently preceding a contraction or a plunge in the price of Bitcoin in history.

A significant indicator of this trend was on July 15 when Bitcoins miners, who mine new BTC, brought out approximately 16,000 BTC to the exchanges in a day. that is the largest liquidation by miners in months and it indicates that many miners are taking profits at current prices, which are floating around $123,000.

Newer and Short-Term Investors Are Buying the Dip

Whereas old timers are selling, new and temporary investors are taking their place. These are individuals who have bought Bitcoin recently and are yet to sell, probably awaiting even higher rates. Based on the on-chain data it shows that short term holders have been purchasing the entire coin near the price range of about 116K-118K despite price fluctuations.

What is interesting about it is that these buyers have not scrambled to sell as soon as there is a glimpse of profit. It is positive to the market which portrays confidence and an expectation that Bitcoin may rise up. Numerous of these investors are well above a $100,000 cost basis (or price paid) and apparently, they are willing to weather out any temporary descents.

Tug of War: Sellers vs Buyers

There is the activity of push and pull going off in the market:

·         The long-term holders are cutting back on their positions thus may create selling pressure.

·         The short-term buyers and institutions are taking what is being sold and the price is relatively fixed.

However, the twist to this picture is that the short-term investors tend to be less experienced and more soft hands when faced with the volatility. Should the prices fall too low or too fast, they may panic-sell creating an acceleration.

What Could Happen Next?

Let’s break this down into a few possible outcomes:

Scenario 1: A Healthy Pullback

Bitcoin dips to around $111K–$115K, where strong buyers step in. This type of pullback can actually be good for the market — like catching a breath before running again.

Scenario 2: Too Much Selling

If selling pressure from long-term holders keeps growing and buyers step back, Bitcoin might drop below $111K, possibly triggering a deeper correction.

Scenario 3: Consolidation, Then Breakout

If prices stay steady in the $114K–$118K range and no major negative news hits, Bitcoin could build up enough strength to rally again — possibly heading toward $130K or even $150K.

Technical Indicators Support a Cooldown

·         The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing that it is in the overbought zone, which is not a good sign that the bitcoin is overheating.

·         Interest in CME futures is increasing, and that implies greater investors predicting BTC using institutional marketing. This may bring power, but also danger should the bets turn out to be bad.

·         The inflow of ETFs is also firmly present, with July seeing more than $3.4 billion flows into crypto-based funds. This institutional interest introduces an additional level of stability to the price of Bitcoin.

Where do we go from here then?

For a while, Bitcoin could stop. A slight fall in prices is possible if long-term investors take gains, but any drop might be temporary if institutions and short-term investors continue to purchase.

If buyers remain confident, we predict a quick consolidation, perhaps a drop towards the $114K level, followed by another upswing. However, a larger decline is possible if the market does not maintain support around $111,000.

✅ Key Takeaways

Trend	What It Means for Bitcoin
Long-term holders selling	Profit-taking could slow momentum
Short-term buyers stepping in	Support may hold around $116K
ETF and institutional inflows	Long-term demand is still strong

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin has come a long way, and it’s normal for markets to take breaks. Right now, we’re watching a healthy shift in behavior. If you're a long-term believer, this could be just another bump on the road to higher prices. If you're a short-term trader, keep your eyes on support levels around $111K–$115K. That’s where the next big decision will be made — bounce or break.

In this market, patience, planning, and knowing the data make all the difference.

Bitcoin Breaks $118K: What’s Fueling the Crypto Surge in 2025?

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight—it’s a revolution covered in mystery. After smashing through the $118,000 mark, the world’s most dominant cryptocurrency is not just breaking records—it’s rewriting the rules of global finance. From political support to institutional buying and technical momentum, this explosive rally isn’t just hype. It’s history in the making.

Let’s break down what’s driving this incredible run and what could be next for Bitcoin.

Trump’s Bitcoin Strategy: The Catalyst Behind the Climb

Former President Donald Trump has taken a surprisingly aggressive pro-Bitcoin stance that’s shaking up both Wall Street and Washington.

• National BTC Reserve Plan: The Trump camp has floated the idea of creating a U.S. “digital gold reserve,” which would officially store Bitcoin as a strategic national asset—something that only a few countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have done so far.
  
  

• Regulatory Clarity at Last: Pro-crypto legislation like the recently passed GENIUS Act has given investors the legal clarity they’ve craved for years. This is driving fresh capital into the space.
  
  

• Market Confidence: Trump's endorsement has added legitimacy to Bitcoin and helped calm lingering concerns about future regulation.
  
  

Whether you're a fan or not, there's no denying that Trump’s push is fueling Bitcoin’s momentum.

Institutions Are All In—and That Changes Everything

Wall Street has moved out of the picture. According to traditional finance, Bitcoin is now a lawful asset.

• ETF Mania: Since early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $140 billion in capital. BlackRock, Fidelity, and others are scooping up Bitcoin to meet investor demand.
  
  

• Corporate Balance Sheets: Big names like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and even GameStop are holding Bitcoin. These firms are signaling that BTC isn’t just a speculation—it’s a long-term asset class.
  
  

• Emerging Markets Join the Party: Pakistan is reportedly exploring a national BTC strategy through influencer-turned-activist Bilal Bin Saqib. It’s part of a larger trend: developing economies are starting to see Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation.
  

What used to be a niche investment is now going mainstream—and the numbers prove it.

Why the Big Picture Encourages Increase in Bitcoin's value

The current state of the world economy is ideal for Bitcoin.

• The Federal Reserve Relaxes Its Position: The dollar is depreciating and assets like Bitcoin are increasing as a result of the U.S. Fed's potential interest rate decreases.

• Inflation and Uncertainty: Given the ongoing concerns about global inflation, a lot of investors are searching for assets that would appreciate in value over time, and Bitcoin meets this need.

• Technical Breakouts: Bitcoin has been gaining pace after breaking through its long-standing resistance at $112,000 dollars. $146,000 is currently viewed by analysts as the next significant milestone.

Bitcoin is emerging as the preferred option for hedge funds, family offices, and individual investors alike as the economic picture changes.

What Could Derail Bitcoin’s Momentum?

This rally isn’t bulletproof. There are risks investors should keep in mind.

• High Volatility: As always, Bitcoin can swing wildly in short periods. That makes it risky for short-term traders.
  
  

• Profit-Taking Pressure: With such a massive price surge, we may see some pullbacks as early investors cash out.
  
  

• Geopolitical Risks: Trade wars, unexpected legislation, or global financial shocks could slow Bitcoin’s momentum.
  

It’s not all smooth sailing—but the long-term trend still looks strong.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Here’s what we’re watching in the days and weeks ahead:

• Support Levels: $107,000 to $112,000 is a key price zone. If BTC drops, that’s where buyers are expected to step in.
  
  

• Year-End Forecast: If momentum continues, many analysts are eyeing $140K–$150K as a realistic target before 2025 wraps up.
  
  

• U.S. Crypto Week (July 14–18): With new policies expected to be announced, this could be another big catalyst for the market.
  
  

Final Thoughts: A New Era for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. With institutional backing, political support, and a rapidly shifting global economy, it’s reinforcing its role in the financial future.

Whether you currently own or are considering investing, one fact is obvious: Bitcoin’s surge past $118K represents more than just a price achievement. It indicates that the cryptocurrency environment has fundamentally transformed.

Now the question is—how far can it go?